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Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of online currency trading by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very 'fast market' which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders' timing will be off. Don't expect to generate returns on every trade.
Let's enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:
Trade with money you can afford to lose:
Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also
exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are 'involved with
your money' the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have
earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be
traded.
Identify the state of the market:
What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a
trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it
look like a new trend that's forming. Getting a clear picture of the market
situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.
Determine what time frame you're trading on:
Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get
out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one
must extrapolate in his mind's eye the movement that one expects to happen.
Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period
of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this
is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly
impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to
define from the outset if you'll be 'scalping' (trying to get a few points
off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also
determine what chart period you're looking at. If you trade many times a
day, there's no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph,
you'll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is
important to know the different time periods when various financial centers
enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and
liquidity and can influence market movements.
Time your trade:
You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early
or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an
expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision
can consolidate a movement that's already underway. Timing your move means
knowing what's expected and taking into account all considerations before
trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a
move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.
If in doubt, stay out:
If you're unsure about a trade and find you're hesitating, stay on
the sidelines.
Trade logical transaction sizes:
Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading
at full margin capacity (in ACM's case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very
large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may
re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally
wiser. In short, don't trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and
don't put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless
of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.
Gauge market sentiment:
Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about
the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically
about trend. You may have heard the term 'the trend is your friend', this
basically means that if you're in the right direction with a strong trend
you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend
is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can
indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.
Market expectation:
Market expection relates to what most people are expecting as far as
upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise
and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the
information will already have been 'discounted' by the market, alternatively
if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.
Use what other traders use:
In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making
trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go
under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would
rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market
participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines
and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of
opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity.
Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools.
The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels,
fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages.
The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise
your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger
numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up
from that price and vice-versa.
Technical analysis (what to look at): Coming up
Fundamental analysis (what to look at): Coming up